2025 Healthcare M&A Market Forecast: A MAHA Perspective

Middle Market Healthcare: 2024 Analysis and 2025 Trends

In 2024, middle-market healthcare M&A faced challenges, with deal volume declining from 2023, continuing a downward trend from a peak in 2022. Market uncertainty, regulatory concerns, and reimbursement issues led to cautious buyer behavior, higher deal breakup rates, and valuation declines. However, businesses with strong fundamentals and proactive strategies commanded premium valuations due to a scarcity of quality assets. For a detailed recap, see our 2024 End-of-Year Review.

Looking ahead to 2025, lower middle market companies can expect increased interest from buyers seeking scalable, compliant operations in high-growth segments.

Large-Cap Market and Regulatory Influences on Lower Middle Market M&A

As highlighted by an outlook published by Wolters Kluwer, a full-service consulting, accounting, and legal firm, several macro trends in the large-cap market and regulatory environment are expected to impact M&A activity for small to medium-sized healthcare companies .

• Anticipated Regulatory Shifts: The Trump administration’s appointees, such as Andrew Ferguson (FTC Chair) and Gail Slater (DOJ Antitrust Division), are expected to adopt a more lenient approach to M&A enforcement, easing scrutiny on transactions. This could reduce barriers for lower middle market companies, enabling faster deal closures, though protectionist policies may limit foreign investment via CFIUS oversight.
• AI Implementation in M&A: AI is a prime target for mega-cap investments, with large firms acquiring AI startups to bolster innovation. For lower middle market companies, this creates opportunities to partner with or attract investment from larger players seeking AI-driven solutions in telehealth or data analytics, potentially increasing M&A activity.
• Shareholder Activism: A stronger M&A environment in 2025 may encourage activists to target undervalued middle market healthcare firms, driving consolidation as larger strategics pursue growth through acquisitions.
• Cybersecurity Threats: High-profile cyberattacks in recent years have heightened the need for cybersecurity due diligence, with data breaches costing millions. Small to medium-sized companies must ensure robust IT infrastructure to avoid deal disruptions, as buyers increasingly prioritize cybersecurity in valuations.

These trends will increase M&A opportunities for lower middle market healthcare firms by reducing regulatory hurdles, attracting tech-focused buyers, and encouraging consolidation, but they also underscore the need for strong compliance and cybersecurity to secure favorable deals.

Headwinds and Tailwinds in Professional Healthcare Industries

Below, we highlight key healthcare industry segments with tailwinds and headwinds, offering predictions we’ll track in upcoming reports to assess their accuracy.

Behavioral Health: Substance Use Disorder (SUD), Mental Health, and Autism

A dynamic market propelled by evidence-based treatments, therapeutic modalities, and telehealth expansion. Autism, particularly ABA therapy, is surging — ranking third in 2024 but poised to climb higher in 2025 with five deals already announced in Q1 (up from zero in Q1 2024). Higher diagnosis rates, successful outcomes, and consolidation, especially mature platforms bolting on acquisitions, drive this vertical. Sellers are flooding the market, a trend we expect to accelerate through 2025.

     Tailwinds:

1. Increased Funding: Post-Covid demand for SUD, mental health, and autism services has surged. Medicaid reimbursement is expected to continue to rise in many states, and buyers are recently more open to out-of-network targets. This shift aligns with our recent discussions with Levin Associates, where we noted key drivers like evidence-based treatments (e.g., trauma therapy, family programs), the expansion of residential treatment and detox facilities in underserved regions, and growing outpatient programs (PHP/IOP) in urban markets. These trends capture clients early in their recovery, boosting retention and deal appeal.
2. Technological Advancements: Telehealth and digital therapeutics are scaling behavioral health solutions and drawing investor interest. Telehealth’s rapid growth, offering nationwide access and enhancing outpatient services through outcome tracking, will be a critical factor for buyers assessing the scalability of treatment programs. The growth of specialized treatments like neurofeedback, which could further improve compliance and outcomes, has received accelerated interest from buyers.
3. Policy Support: A potential return of Trump’s opioid crisis focus could streamline treatment approvals. Additionally, Medicaid efficiencies under the current administration may further catalyze SUD and mental health deals.

     Headwinds:

1. Workforce Shortages: Demand for autism services & behavioral health professionals exceed supply, impacting service delivery.
2. Fraud Risks: Fraud and waste remain prevalent, deterring some investors. Our firm mitigates these risks with thorough vetting of our clients and abundant seller preparation before going to market.

Home-Based Care: Home Health & Hospice

Home Health

     Tailwinds:

1. Aging Demographics: The surge toward 2030, where one in five Americans will be 65+, is a massive tailwind, with most preferring to age at home. This will ignite a wave of M&A as providers scramble to continue meeting this demand, especially in rural areas where access is limited. Drawing from our discussions on scalability through technology, we predict a sizable uptick in home health deals by mid-2025, driven by financial buyers reentering the market.
2. Technological Integration: AI wearables and remote monitoring are transforming care quality by making services more accessible to all areas of the country. We foresee private equity targeting tech-forward providers as telehealth adoption accelerates.

     Headwinds:

1. Reimbursement Lag: Although we believe that reimbursement will rise under new CMS leadership, CMS payments have been lagging behind inflation and continue to squeeze margins. This could stall smaller providers unless they innovate and more efficiently approach their cost structures.
2. Value-Based Care Inefficiencies: The messy transition to value-based models, with fragmented data and unclear ROI, continues to be a drag. This could deter buyers in the first half of 2025, pushing deals to later in the year when CMS clarifies policies.

Hospice

     Tailwinds:

1. Patient Census Growth: Aging demographics will keep hospice demand climbing. We are optimistic this will spur an increase in deal volume by 2025 as buyers chase this steady revenue stream. Our recent conversations with operators and acquirors suggest a focus on rural expansion could dominate.
2. Policy Support: With Trump’s government efficiency and deregulation push, we predict Medicare rate hikes and simpler certifications could boost hospice M&A, especially for mid-sized firms looking to scale.

     Headwinds:

1. Cap Liability Lag: New entrants from 2021-2022 are still grappling with Medicare caps, and we fear this financial burden could lead to a drop in new hospice deals or current deal valuations unless they are mitigated with strong cash flow. This has been a lesson from our recent hospice deals.
2. Softening Seller Inventory: Cooling seller inventory due to lowering multiples is a trend that may persist through mid-2025. This may lower valuations unless they offset with consistent referrals of first-admit patients. There is enough of a patient base, but agencies may not have the personnel or the contracts to service and access these patients, respectively.

Primary Care: Physician Practices

     Tailwinds:

1. Consolidation Trends: Large health systems could reignite their interest in physician practices. This could be a trend in 2025 as they chase value-based care. Based on our talks about market consolidation, we predict acquisitions in large-cap primary care deals, like Optum’s continued M&A, will have a trickle-down effect on the middle market.
2. Value-Based Care Incentives: With better leadership, if CMS continues to push for integration of coordinated and consolidated care between unified providers, it could lead to an M&A surge by late 2025 as practices align with these incentives, especially those leveraging telehealth from our prior discussions.

     Headwinds:

1. Physician Burnout: Staffing shortages and administrative burdens are a growing pain point, and we worry this could cap deal growth unless addressed with tech solutions, a concern echoed in our health-focused chats.
2. Regulatory Uncertainty: CMS shifts under Trump could disrupt reimbursement, and we anticipate a cautious market in early 2025, with deals delayed until policy clarity emerges.

Pharmacy: Specialty/Infusion & Long-Term Care Rx

     Tailwinds:

1. Ambulatory Infusion Growth: The rise in autoimmune treatments is a hot spot, and we are confident this will drive an increase in infusion deals this year, especially in rural markets we’ve discussed for underserved care.
2. PBM Reform and Specialty Drugs: Over the past 18 months, we have seen great progress in limiting PBM overreach. With the new administration’s focus on lower drug costs and support for the independent pharmacy, we could see a full chop block of the PBMs. We don’t know what this will mean to the point of sale and margins on these goods, but it should have a positive impact. Also, there may be a surge of repurposed drugs, supplements, and compounded medicines that can now be sold through pharmacies that are not ruled over by the drug wholesalers and pharmaceuticals. In terms of HHS and their ambitious goals, the road to successful outcomes may all lead through a reinvention of the pharmacy.
3. Regulatory Reforms: Trump’s HHS, NIH, and FDA are striving to bring reforms to the pharmaceutical world. This should lead to empowering individuals and small to medium-sized pharmacy operators.

     Headwinds:

1. Supply Chain Concentration: In specialty pharmacy, supply chains are vulnerable. This could create too much uncertainty for buyers in the short term. Tariffs on foreign drugs could compound the access challenges and drive down margins.
2. Market Consolidation: Big players continue to dominate; if policies are slow to enact, the highly concentrated specialty pharmacies may buy out or the PBMs may deliver swift penalties to the small operators.

Consumer/Retail Health

     Tailwinds:

1. Preventive Care Demand: The wellness boom is driving investments, and we predict a steep rise in consumer health deals by 2025, fueled by functional medicine trends.
2. Digital Health Tools: Fitness apps and trackers are empowering consumers, and we’re optimistic about an M&A increase as buyers chase this tech-driven growth.
3. Food as Medicine: Joel Salatin’s sustainable farming push aligns with healthier options. We foresee a deal uptick in food-as-medicine firms by late 2025, reflecting our health-focused insights.

Subsegment Predictions:

• Private Practices: We predict a deal surge as demand for personalized care grows.
• Retail Medicine: Convenience clinics will see a steady rise in M&A as retailers integrate services.
• MedSpa/Cosmetic Care: We expect growth in MedSpa transactions as aesthetics gain traction, a niche we’ve eyed for private equity in recent years.

     Headwinds:

1. Regulatory Scrutiny: Marty Makary’s FDA chemical focus could hit big-brand products hard at first. If the FDA makes aggressive moves to improve the food and drug supply, it could turn the industry upside down. Ultimately, this will be good for the country, but it could hurt companies that hold large inventories and have contracts on these items.
2. The Pressures of the Healthcare and Food Revolution: We believe that increasing scientific scrutiny behind drugs, a focus on preventive care, and the immense challenges around cleaning up the healthcare and food systems will be among the most impactful results of Trump’s second term; however, it is going to induce some pain and require fortitude in the short term.

Seizing Tomorrow’s Opportunities: M&A Healthcare Advisors, Your Partner

The 2025 healthcare M&A market offers substantial growth opportunities for lower middle market companies, particularly in home-based care, primary care, pharmacy, and consumer health. Regulatory shifts and technological advancements will drive activity, but navigating these complexities requires expert guidance. M&A Healthcare Advisors brings deep insight into high-profile transactions, emphasizing proactive strategies to overcome regulatory and market challenges.

M&A Healthcare Advisors is your trusted partner, offering comprehensive support in consultation, valuations, sale preparation, and Quality of Earnings analysis. As we roll out further details on our financial analysis, accounting, and CFO support services in the coming weeks, we’re equipped to handle all aspects of your M&A journey. Contact us to learn how we can unlock your business’s full potential in 2025.

Addendum: Trump’s Cabinet Appointments: Benefits and Challenges

Finance: Treasury, FTC, SEC, SBA, DOJ

Treasury: Scott Bessent (Secretary)  

           Status: Nominated November 22, 2024; confirmed January 27, 2025, in a 68-29 Senate vote.
           Role: Advocates for deficit reduction, deregulation, and targeted tariffs, potentially increasing capital for M&A through tax cuts.

FTC: Andrew Ferguson (Chair) 

           Status: Nominated December 11, 2024; sworn in as Commissioner earlier in 2024
           Role: Expected to ease merger scrutiny, benefiting lower middle market healthcare M&A.

WH Trade Council: Peter Navarro

           Status: Senior counselor for trade and manufacturing for U.S. president.
           Role: Former Trump trade advisor; could benefit M&A transactions by advocating protectionist policies that favor U.S.-based deals, reducing foreign competition and encouraging domestic consolidation. His tariff focus might streamline approvals for healthcare M&A by prioritizing American firms, though it could raise costs for cross-border transactions.

SEC: Paul Atkins (Commissioner) 

           Status: Nominated January 20, 2025, for a term expiring June 5, 2026
           Role: Likely to reduce regulatory burdens and support cryptocurrency innovation, encouraging investment in digital health.

SBA: Kelly Loeffler (Administrator) 

           Status: Nominated December 4, 2024; confirmed February 19, 2025, in a 52-46 Senate vote.
           Role: Leads the Small Business Administration, focusing on reducing red tape and enhancing access to SBA-backed loans/grants. Benefits M&A by providing capital and disaster relief to small healthcare firms, enabling growth or acquisition readiness. Her deregulation push could ease deal financing, while audits ensure efficient funding, boosting lower middle market M&A activity.

Treasury: Michael Faulkender (Deputy Secretary) 

           Status: Nominated January 20, 2025; confirmation status not detailed as of March 17, 2025— pending. 
           Role: Could reinforce Bessent’s fiscal policies, boosting M&A capital flows.

Commerce: Howard Lutnick (Secretary) 

           Status: Nominated November 19, 2024; confirmed February 18, 2025, in a 51-45 Senate vote. Current as of March 17, 2025.
           Role: Oversees trade, tech exports, and economic data; benefits small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and middle-class labor by promoting tariffs that protect U.S. industries, driving domestic manufacturing (e.g., healthcare equipment). His BEAD program focus expands broadband, aiding SMB telehealth growth, while tariff negotiations balance costs, supporting labor-intensive healthcare jobs.

Predictions: Deregulation, favorable tax policies, and investment incentives will spur healthcare M&A. Lutnick’s tariff agenda and Loeffler’s SBA reforms could accelerate SMB deal flow, though Navarro’s protectionism might limit global M&A scope. Tensions with the Fed (Jerome Powell) may complicate monetary alignment.

Health: HHS, CMS, FDA, USDA, Justice

HHS: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary) 

           Status: Nominated November 14, 2024; confirmed February 13, 2025, in a 52-48 vote.
           Role: Challenges Big Pharma/Agro, fostering innovation in smaller healthcare firms.

CMS: Dr. Mehmet Oz (Administrator) 

           Status: Nominated prior to January 20, 2025; confirmed January 28, 2025, in a 77-22 vote.
           Role: Reduces fraud, potentially increasing Medicare/Medicaid payments per patient.

FDA: Marty Makary (Commissioner) 

           Status: Nominated November 26, 2024. Pending Confirmation.
           Role: Prioritizes science over profit, impacting consumer health.

USDA: Joel Salatin (Advisor) 

           Status: No formal nomination data as of March 17, 2025; assumed an informal advisory role.
           Role: Supports food-as-medicine initiatives via sustainable farming.

HHS: Jim O’Neill (Deputy Secretary) 

           Status: Nominated November 26, 2024; confirmation status not detailed as of March 17, 2025—likely pending. 
           Role: Supports RFK Jr.’s agenda, driving smaller firm innovation.

CDC (under HHS): Dave Weldon (Director) 

           Status: Nominated prior to January 20, 2025; He is withdrawn from consideration, as of March 17. TBD.
           Role: Aligns with RFK Jr.’s anti-Pharma push, impacting preventive care M&A.

Justice: Gayle Slater (Antitrust Division, DOJ) 

           Status: Currently in role.
           Role: If in the Antitrust Division, could benefit lower middle market businesses by easing merger enforcement, focusing scrutiny on Big Pharma/tech, allowing smaller healthcare firms to consolidate. Her role might mirror Ferguson’s FTC deregulatory stance, enhancing deal feasibility for mid-tier M&A.

Predictions: Reduced regulatory burdens, increased competition, and public-private partnerships will drive M&A, particularly in telehealth and digital health. Slater’s potential antitrust leniency could amplify lower middle market growth.